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Koruna weakens at the end of 2011, but will strengthen this year

12.01.2012 - 16:50 | Pick of the Week

In the first ten months of 2011, the euro-koruna exchange rate was below CZK 25/EUR, which it surpassed only on November 1. The trend of the weakening koruna, obvious since August from the data issued by the Czech National Bank (ČNB), also continued at the end of the year. On Thursday, January 6, the exchange rate hovered around CZK 25.91/EUR. The koruna also developed in a similar fashion against the dollar. From CZK 19.10/USD in January, the Czech currency gained roughly 15% by May. Since the end of August, the koruna has essentially been weakening continuously, even beyond CZK 20/USD. On January 5, the exchange rate was CZK 20.19/USD.

The trend of the weakening koruna should stop in 2012. According to Česká spořitelna (ČS) analyst Martin Lobotka, one can instead expect stagnation or a slight strengthening in the first half-year. According to him, the ceiling of the weakening is CZK 26.50/EUR. Less optimism compared to 2011 and the fact that investors consider the Czech currency a moderately risky asset will act against the koruna's strengthening. According to Lobotka, on the other hand, a lower exchange rate will be supported by current recession data that show that the situation in the Czech Republic is better than in the average eurozone country.

A return of the koruna toward an appreciation trend in 2012 is expected by Komerční banka (KB) analyst Jiří Škop, even though an unpleasant external environment and expected stagnation will influence the currency in the next several months. Škop is expecting the maximum weakening only up to CZK 26.00/EUR, unless the eurozone's debt crisis escalates. According to the forecast, the koruna exchange rate will be at the levels of CZK 25.20/EUR and CZK 19.38/USD, while at the end of the year, according to KB, the Czech currency could strengthen up to CZK 24.40/EUR and CZK 17.43/USD. According to Lobotka, this year one can expect an average exchange rate of CZK 24.40/CZK.

The ČNB also counts on a slight appreciation of the koruna, however, the strengthening pace will not have such a dynamic as before the crisis. Within the period of one year, the exchange rate expected in December is CZK 24.18/EUR. As another significant weakening of the koruna is not probable, according to Lobotka, one cannot expect more significant impacts on exports or inflation. Currently, the weaker koruna may be favouring exporters, but this effect, according to Lobotka, is dampened both by existing exporters' assurance and by the fact that the weaker koruna is usually associated with weaker foreign demand.


Autor: Jan Neubert, redaktor ČIA

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